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Summary for Policy Makers
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay), Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme), Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 3-30
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) demonstrates that energy system change is the key for addressing and resolving these challenges. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained and immediate action.
Transformative change in the energy system may not be internally generated; due to institutional inertia, incumbency and lack of capacity and agility of existing organizations to respond effectively to changing conditions. In such situations clear and consistent external policy signals may be required to initiate and sustain the transformative change needed to meet the sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby, reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, some 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the people in the world.
Chapter 6 - Energy and Economy
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- By Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative, Felix Dayo, Triple “E” Systems Inc., Brian Fisher, BAEconomics, Roger Fouquet, Basque Centre for Climate Change, Asmerom Gilau, Triple “E” Systems Inc., Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Marianne Haug, University of Hohenheim, Richard Hosier, World Bank, Alan Miller, International Finance Corporation, Sabine Schnitteger, BAEconomics, Nora Lustig, Tulane University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 385-422
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Summary
Executive Summary
The three most basic drivers of energy demand are economic activity, population, and technology. Longer-term trends in economic growth for a particular economy depend on underlying demographic and productivity trends, which in turn reflect population growth, labor force participation rate, productivity growth, national savings rate, and capital accumulation (USEIA, 2011).
Several historic shifts are likely to fundamentally alter global demographics over the coming decades. First, as developing nations move from poverty to relative affluence, there is a fundamental shift from agriculture to more energy-intensive but much more productive commercial enterprises. Second, labor forces in the developed countries are aging considerably, which has implications on many fronts, including energy use and employment structures. Third, for the first time the majority of the world's population has become urbanized, with the largest urban centers emerging in developing regions where energy access is a serious constraint. All of these will have immense impacts on the level and quality of energy demand and on concerns about energy security.
Global energy security and sustainability in the twenty-first century will depend less on the total global population than on incomes and their distribution. This in turn will depend to a large extent on how effectively the lack of energy services, which now limit economic opportunities in the less developed regions, is addressed. In addition, energy security will depend on the ability of countries to maintain reliable sources of energy to meet their needs.
Chapter 1 - Energy Primer
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- By Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Luis Mundaca, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Lars Strupeit, Lund University, Peter Kolp, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Jordan Macknick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Yu Nagai, Vienna University of Technology, Mathis L. Rogner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Kjartan Steen-Olsen, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Jan Weinzettel, Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Ogunlade Davidson, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 99-150
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Summary
Introduction and Roadmap
Life is but a continuous process of energy conversion and transformation. The accomplishments of civilization have largely been achieved through the increasingly efficient and extensive harnessing of various forms of energy to extend human capabilities and ingenuity. Energy is similarly indispensable for continued human development and economic growth. Providing adequate, affordable energy is a necessary (even if by itself insufficient) prerequisite for eradicating poverty, improving human welfare, and raising living standards worldwide. Without economic growth, it will also be difficult to address social and environmental challenges, especially those associated with poverty. Without continued institutional, social, and technological innovation, it will be impossible to address planetary challenges such as climate change. Energy extraction, conversion, and use always generate undesirable by-products and emissions – at a minimum in the form of dissipated heat. Energy cannot be created or destroyed – it can only be converted from one form to another, along a one-way street from higher to lower grades (qualities) of energy. Although it is common to discuss energy “consumption,” energy is actually transformed rather than consumed.
This Energy Primer 1 aims at a basic-level introduction to fundamental concepts and data that help to understand energy systems holistically and to provide a common conceptual and terminological framework before examining in greater detail the various aspects of energy systems from challenges and options to integrated solutions, as done in the different chapters of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).
Technical Summary
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Doug J. Arent, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme, Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 31-94
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic, and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace, and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
In this context, two considerations are important. The first is the capacity and agility of the players within the energy system to seize opportunities in response to these challenges. The second is the response capacity of the energy system itself, as the investments are long-term and tend to follow standard financial patterns, mainly avoiding risks and price instabilities. This traditional approach does not embrace the transformation needed to respond properly to the economic, environmental, and social sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
A major transformation is required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for human and planetary systems. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained, and immediate action.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, approximately 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the world's population.
Chapter 7 - Energy Resources and Potentials
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- By Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Roberto F. Aguilera, Curtin University, Cristina L. Archer, California State University and Stanford University, Ruggero Bertani, Enel Green Power S.p.A., S.C. Bhattacharya, International Energy Initiative, Maurice B. Dusseault, University of Waterloo, Luc Gagnon, HydroQuébec, Helmut Haberl, Klagenfurt University, Monique Hoogwijk, Ecofys, Arthur Johnson, Hydrate Energy International, Mathis L. Rogner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Horst Wagner, Montan University Leoben, Vladimir Yakushev, Gazprom, Doug J. Arent, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Ian Bryden, University of Edinburgh, Fridolin Krausmann, Klagenfurt University, Peter Odell, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Christoph Schillings, German Aerospace Center, Ali Shafiei, University of Waterloo, Ji Zou, Renmin University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 425-512
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Summary
Executive Summary
An energy resource is the first step in the chain that supplies energy services (for a definition of energy services, see Chapter 1). Energy services are largely ignorant of the particular resource that supplies them; however, often the infrastructures, technologies, and fuels along the delivery chain are highly dependent on a particular type of resource. The availability and costs of bringing energy resources to the market place are key determinants to affordable and accessible energy services.
Energy resources pose no inherent limitation to meeting the rapidly growing global energy demand as long as adequate upstream investment is forthcoming – for exhaustible resources in exploration, production technology, and capacity (mining and field development) and, by analogy, for renewables in conversion technologies.
Hydrocarbons and Nuclear
Occurrences of hydrocarbons and fissile materials in the Earth's crust are plentiful – yet they are finite. The extent of the ultimately recoverable oil, natural gas, coal, or uranium is the subject of numerous reviews, yet still the range of values in the literature is large (Table 7.1). For example, the range for conventional oil is between 4900 exajoules (EJ) for reserves to 13,700 EJ (reserves plus resources) – a range that sustains continued debate and controversy. The large range is the result of varying boundaries of what is included in the analysis of a finite stock of an exhaustible resource, e.g., conventional oil only or conventional oil plus unconventional occurrences, such as oil shale, tar sands, and extra-heavy oils.
Pseudospark ion diodes
- W. Bauer, A. Brandelik, A. Citron, H. Ehrler, E. Halter, G. Melchior, K. Mittag, A. Rogner, C. Schultheiss
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- Journal:
- Laser and Particle Beams / Volume 5 / Issue 4 / November 1987
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 09 March 2009, pp. 581-587
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The Pseudospark is an axially symmetric, high-voltage gas discharge operating at pressures below 100 Pa. It is capable of producing pinched high current ion beams. Streak camera photographs of the operation of this discharge reveal that a pinch with a diameter of ∼1 mm occurs in the diode. The beam then expands to about 1 to 10 mm in a distance of 12 cm. The beam-target interaction shows a UV-emitting plasma corresponding to protons with a main energy of 100 keV and a current density of about 16 kA/cm2. Initial theoretical results for the pseudospark are given.
Investigation of a self-magnetically insulated Bθ-diode
- A. Citron, W. Kühn, A. Rogner, W. Schimassek, O. Stoltz
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- Journal:
- Laser and Particle Beams / Volume 5 / Issue 4 / November 1987
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 09 March 2009, pp. 565-572
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An ion diode, where the insulating magnetic Bθ-field is produced by the diode current itself, has been investigated. Using a novel Thomson-parabola spectrometer that is capable of detecting up to 41 beam traces at a single shot and a carbon activation diagnostic the ion beam has been analyzed. The diode, operating at “KALIF”, delivers ion beams of 750 kA at energies of about 0·7 MeV. The focusing version of the diode shows a focus size of 1 cm2, the beam is neutralized to 98–99%, the proton content is about 60%.